Reston homeowners watching a widening gap between single-family and condo values got more evidence the trend is countywide. Preliminary Fairfax County data for September shows single-family homes sold for an average of $1.22 million, up 2% from a year ago, while condo prices fell 10.3% to $421,643.

The figures, drawn from MarketStats by ShowingTime and reported by FFXnow on Monday, Oct. 12, mirror a pattern visible in Reston's own market. A TysonsToday analysis of July data found Reston condos averaging about $393,000 and single-family homes averaging $1.18 million, with just 1.4 months of supply.

Across Fairfax County, 897 properties closed in September, down from 953 a year earlier and below the five-year September average of 930. Total sales volume fell 3.7% to just under $814 million. The overall average price still rose 3% to $903,940, but Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS, said that gain reflected a larger share of expensive single-family homes in the mix rather than broad appreciation. Average attached-home prices slipped 0.8% to $569,805.

Per-square-foot prices declined countywide, from $371 to $367.

Sturtevant pointed to elevated mortgage rates as the primary drag on the market. The average 30-year fixed rate reached 7.40% in early October, the highest since November 2023, according to Freddie Mac. In an Oct. 9 report covered by the Journal Record, Sturtevant said, "We should expect a housing market 'stall' and not a housing market 'crash' this fall."

Buyer traffic bore that out. Pending sales across the D.C. region fell 17.1% year over year in September, and showings dropped 16.9%, according to Bright MLS. Countywide pending sales stood at 921 at the end of September, down about 11%. Inventory moved the other direction: Fairfax County had 2,326 active listings as of Sept. 30, a 36% jump. Sturtevant said D.C.-area listings now sit above pre-pandemic levels.

A Virginia Realtors flash survey conducted Sept. 23–30 reinforced the cautious outlook. The statewide Buyer Activity Index fell to 24, its lowest reading of 2026 and less than half its April peak of 54. Among 511 respondents, 59% rated buyer activity "low" or "very low." A third cited high mortgage rates as the top challenge for buyer clients.

Homes that closed countywide in September spent an average of 26 days between listing and ratified contract, unchanged from a year ago but four days longer than the five-year September average.

Reston-specific September price breakdowns have not yet been published. Among surveyed Virginia agents, 58% expected prices to decrease over the next three months, and only 12% anticipated increases.