Reston-area homeowners could see monthly electric bills climb past $450 within 20 years under projections in Dominion Energy's latest long-term power plan.

The utility filed its updated integrated resource plan (IRP) with the Virginia State Corporation Commission (SCC), outlining 39 gigawatts of new power generation to meet surging demand, as first reported by the Virginia Mercury. Data center growth across Northern Virginia is a major driver of that demand.

The bill projections depend on which calculation method is used. Under the SCC's mandated formula, a household using 1,000 kilowatt-hours per month would pay an estimated $320 by 2036 and $458 by 2046, according to the filing. Dominion's own calculation puts those figures lower: $258 by 2036 and $284 by 2046.

Dominion disputes the higher numbers.

The company stated in its filing that the SCC's methodology "results in overstated bill projections because it does not reflect anticipated growth in sales …" The SCC will review the filing, and a full trial on the updated plan is scheduled for fall 2027.

For context, the current estimated monthly electric bill for a Virginia household is about $181, based on U.S. Energy Information Administration data. That means even the lower Dominion projection would represent a roughly 43% increase by 2036, while the SCC-method figure would more than double current bills by 2046.

What Dominion plans to build

The 20-year buildout includes more than 21 gigawatts of solar, 9 gigawatts of natural gas, 3.5 gigawatts of battery storage, 3.3 gigawatts of wind and 2 gigawatts of small modular nuclear reactors. The IRP is a roadmap, not a concrete list of approved projects.

Dominion spokesperson Jeremy Slayton said the plan calls for "more than 39 gigawatts of new power generation assets over the next 20 years" with more than three-fourths coming from carbon-free sources.

A key tension: the plan keeps natural gas as a major component despite the Virginia Clean Economy Act's mandate to retire carbon-emitting sources. Dominion's filing stated that green energy sources are not yet commercially viable or reliable enough to meet annual load growth of roughly 4%, with power demand expected to double by 2045.

Data centers and the demand surge

Virginia is one of the largest importers of electricity on the East Coast. Gov. Abigail Spanberger's energy plan, released Thursday, Oct. 1, acknowledged that data center electricity consumption "far exceeds new consumption from the electrification of homes and vehicles," according to the Virginia Mercury's coverage of the plan.

Dominion has reported a connection queue of projects requiring 25 gigawatts of power with set electrification dates. An additional 75 gigawatts are waiting without a set date.

The regional grid operator PJM has separately proposed requiring data centers to bring their own power supply, a rule now before federal regulators, WTOP reported in August. Dominion has already created a new rate class for large-load customers, mostly data centers, that imposes minimum demand charges.

As we reported Oct. 16, Virginia lawmakers have filed four data center moratorium bills for the 2027 legislative session.

The SCC's evidentiary hearing on the IRP is set for fall 2027.