Fairfax County and its Northern Virginia neighbors must collectively cover $136 million in new Metro capital costs starting in fiscal year 2029. That temporary state funding expires after fiscal year 2028, and no permanent replacement exists.

Those figures come from a draft annual report on the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) reviewed at the Northern Virginia Transportation Commission's (NVTC) Nov. 5 board meeting, as FFXnow reported. The $136 million obligation would grow 3% each year.

Reston residents who commute on the Silver Line could see higher fares or reduced service if the funding shortfall is not resolved. Hunter Mill District Supervisor Walter Alcorn, who serves on both the NVTC and WMATA boards, told the meeting that Metro stands alone among major U.S. transit systems.

"We're the only major transit system in the U.S. that doesn't have a dedicated revenue source," Alcorn said.

A two-year patch running out

The problem traces back to a temporary budget fix. State legislators provided $153 million more per year for WMATA during the 2026 session. FFXnow described that money as going toward "capital costs," while the NVTC draft report characterized it as support for "Virginia's obligations in WMATA's operating budget." Either way, the funding only extends through fiscal year 2028, and no permanent statewide revenue source was enacted to replace it.

Without a long-term fix, localities would shoulder the capital costs themselves. Arlington officials have already estimated they would need to raise the county's real estate tax rate by 8 cents per $100 of assessed value if the burden fell on its general fund, according to FFXnow. Fairfax County's specific share of the $136 million has not been publicly detailed.

Fare hikes and service cuts under consideration

Metro General Manager Randy Clarke told WJLA he is considering proposing both fare increases and service cuts in his budget for the fiscal year starting next summer. He cited a deficit driven by fare evasion, tariffs, inflation and rising fuel and electricity costs.

Metro projects a $79 million to $114 million operating budget gap for FY 2028, even with an assumed fare increase, according to the NVTC meeting materials. Clarke is expected to release his proposed FY 2028 budget in December.

Bus fare evasion remains a major drain. The NVTC draft report put bus fare evasion at 69%, compared with 5% on rail. Metro officials cited a slightly lower figure of 64% at a separate board meeting, according to WJLA. Bus ridership fell 7% even as Metro rail ridership grew 9% to 151.3 million trips, the NVTC report found.

Six paths forward

The draft report headed to Gov. Abigail Spanberger and the Virginia General Assembly outlined six recommendations for keeping Metro financially viable: creating long-term funding options, capping funding growth at 3% annually, negotiating sustainable union contracts, reviewing overtime costs, revisiting fare policies and strengthening enforcement, and establishing a regional audit of local funding.

NVTC program analyst Owen Williams said at the Nov. 5 meeting that the fundamental long-term funding question remains unsolved.

Not everyone agrees on who should act first. Del. Paul Krizek (D-16), an NVTC board member, said asking Richmond for more money is "kind of like saying 'find that rainbow with a pot of gold at the end.'" He pressed local leaders to propose specific funding options for legislators to consider.

Dranesville District Supervisor Jimmy Bierman, also an NVTC board member, agreed and called for giving lawmakers a menu of options.

What comes next

The NVTC board is expected to finalize the annual report early next month and send it to the governor and General Assembly. The 2027 General Assembly session opens Jan. 13 and is expected to run 45 days. NVTC has scheduled a legislative forum for Dec. 14.